𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐍𝐈𝐎𝐍- 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐁𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐚𝐧, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝’𝐬 𝐏𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐒𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 –𝐀 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

The issue of population decline is becoming a global crisis, and Bhutan is no exception. Recent reports have highlighted the rapid decline in the country’s population, a trend that could have profound effects on its future economic, social, and cultural development. While the Royal Government of Bhutan has introduced some incentives to encourage families to have more children, there is concern that these measures may not be enough, or timely, to address the root causes of the population issue.

Globally, the world’s population growth is slowing. According to the United Nations, global population growth rates have been in decline for decades, and this trend is projected to continue in the coming years. While some countries in Africa and Asia are still experiencing population increases, the vast majority of developed and even developing nations are facing the challenge of aging populations and declining birth rates. In countries like Japan, Italy, and Germany, the population is already shrinking, with fewer young people entering the workforce and a growing elderly population dependent on social welfare systems. These trends, if left unchecked, could lead to labor shortages, increased economic strain, and challenges to social infrastructure.

Bhutan, often regarded for its unique approach to development through the concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH), is not immune to these global trends. In fact, the country is already witnessing the effects of a shrinking population, which could pose challenges to its growth and prosperity. The recent class 8 results, where only about 9,000 out of approximately 13,000 students performed well, underline a troubling demographic trend. This statistic is not just about academic performance; it is a reflection of the broader social issue of declining youth numbers and a population that may not be able to sustain the country’s needs for a dynamic and productive workforce.

The Royal Government’s recent measures, such as providing incentives for families with two children, may be a step in the right direction. However, such policies may be coming too late to address the issue effectively. The government needs to rethink its approach and consider implementing support systems for families much earlier, ideally right after marriage. By providing greater assistance and incentives for families to have more children, the government can help them plan for their future more effectively. Such measures could include tax breaks, subsidized healthcare, and childcare services that are offered as soon as a couple marries, enabling them to expand their families with more confidence.

A larger population can help drive economic growth, as a higher number of workers contributes to a larger labor force, which can produce more goods and services. This, in turn, leads to increased tax revenues, which can be reinvested into social programs like education, healthcare, infrastructure, and environmental sustainability. The economic benefits of a growing population also include economies of scale, where the cost per unit of goods and services decreases as the population grows, and increased specialization, which boosts productivity. These factors contribute to a stronger, more resilient economy.

However, population growth does not automatically guarantee economic prosperity. The key to realizing the benefits of a larger population is ensuring that wealth is fairly distributed and that all members of society have access to the resources they need. Population growth should not result in the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few but rather provide opportunities for all citizens to improve their quality of life. If managed well, the increase in population could lead to more people being able to produce food, resulting in sustainable levels of food production that meet the demands of a growing population.

Furthermore, a larger population brings greater human capital-skills, knowledge, and innovation-that can help fuel economic growth. With more people contributing to various sectors, there is potential for the country to become more competitive in global markets. A diverse and growing population can also lead to increased demand for goods and services, stimulating domestic industries and attracting foreign investment. This, in turn, can drive innovation and technological advancements, creating a cycle of positive growth.

There are, of course, challenges that come with population growth, including environmental pressures, resource scarcity, and potential strain on public services. But these challenges can be addressed through careful planning and sustainable development policies. Bhutan, with its strong focus on environmental preservation and sustainable living, is uniquely positioned to integrate population growth with sustainable practices that protect the country’s natural resources while fostering economic development.

One of the key benefits of a growing population is the increase in market demand. More people mean more consumers, which creates opportunities for businesses to grow and diversify. This could be especially beneficial for Bhutan, as the country seeks to develop its domestic industries and reduce its dependence on imports. The larger domestic market also makes Bhutan more attractive to foreign investors, who are drawn to countries with growing populations and expanding consumer bases.

Another potential benefit of population growth is the attraction of foreign aid and investment. Countries with growing populations are often seen as more dynamic and economically promising, which can encourage international organizations and foreign governments to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, and education projects. This external support could play a crucial role in helping Bhutan meet its social and economic goals.

Bhutan, like the rest of the world, must carefully consider its population policies. While incentives for larger families are important, they must be implemented in a way that allows for long-term, sustainable growth. The government must provide support to families from the outset, rather than waiting for a certain threshold, such as two children, to trigger assistance. Only by addressing the population issue proactively can Bhutan ensure that it continues to thrive and maintain its unique development model. The time to act is now-before the consequences of a shrinking population become too difficult to reverse.

Tshering, Thimphu